With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:
Wales: Wales enter the 2014 6 Nations as two-time defending champions, having won the Championship in convincing style during the last round against a Grand Slam-chasing England in 2013, and pulling off the clean sweep 2012. Since 2005 the Welsh have been champions 4 times, 3 of those in Grand Slam fashion, so their success has been sustained and there is reason to think that they can continue to be one of the top teams in the Northern Hemisphere. Warren Gatland has overseen 3 of those teams and will continue on as the national coach until 2019, such is the faith the WRU have in his ability.
Since taking control in 2008, Wales have been the most successful side winning 73% of their matches while outpacing the rest in points scored, partially as a result of a better conversion ratio (thanks, Neil Jenkins!) while being the second best team defensively by points against. Shawn Edwards and Rob Howley have been key to that success and you would presume that the partnership in the coaching box can continue to be a success even while there are concerns about the direction the domestic game is going in (which does not merit further mention in this column because it would derail the whole thing).
If you were to draw up on paper the prospective XVs for each nation from the squads selected for the Championship, you would be hard pressed to top the talent Wales can plug in 1-15. There is a reason the majority of the starting British and Irish Lions XV that beat Australia last summer was drawn from this squad: they are fantastic players. The balance and abilities of the back-rowers Toby Faletau, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Dan Lydiate can take over a game when they are at their best, controlling the breakdown while gaining yards on offence and putting in tackles on defence. All provide line out and running options and Tipuric is one of the fastest players in the squad, let alone forwards. Lydiate was the Player of the Tournament for the 2012 side. No. 8 Faletau does more of the heavy lifting, in the 2013 Championship he made 46 tackles (missing only 1), made 116 metres and beat 9 defenders, each game putting in a good shift. Warburton was injured for most of last season, but was the tour captain for the Lions and when healthy can be a game breaker around the breakdown and has the ability to play across the backrow to accommodate which ever game plan Gatland has. Barring injury those 4 players will form an enviable unit that will push each other on.
The precision of the boot of Leigh Halfpenny, the Player of the Tournament for 2013 and an IRB Player of the Year nominee at Fullback will keep the scoreboard ticking over, the power and pace of George North, Alex Cuthbert and Jamie Roberts give Gatland genuine world-class options in the back line, and it will be up to Rhys Priestland or Dan Bigger to get the ball into these game breakers. Priestland has been in good form for Scarlets who are having a bit of a meddling season while Bigger has been orchestrating the highest-scoring offence in the Pro12. Had Rhys Patchell been healthy there is a chance he would have had an outside chance at furthering his rugby credentials.
The coaching team will have to dig down to look at some younger players this year as there are a number of senior players who are currently unavailable for selection consideration for a variety of reasons. Ryan Jones, Jonathan Davies, Gethin Jenkins are injured while Ian Evans is currently suspended. (Relative) Test newcomers Jake Ball, Andrew Coombs (both locks), Rhys Webb, Rhodri Williams (scrum-halfs) and Liam Williams (back three) all look to have chances to step onto the field due to injuries or ineffectiveness from previous squad members. It must be said that both Dragons captain Coombs and Scarlet Liam Williams have made positive contributions in their limited time on in the squad .
An area of concern for Wales will be the depth of their prop ranks. An injury to Adam Jones will really cause some disruption as the available back-ups at tighthead are very young and inexperienced, and the rest of the packs in this tournament would immediately have a weakness available to attack. Scarlets teammates Rhodri Jones and Samson Lee (22 and 21 respectively) boast a combined 10 caps between them, and while they could prove to be answers for when A. Jones retires, it would be a tremendous ask for either player to come in and fill his boots now, even adequately. While Wales will want to win it will be important that at least one of these two (they seem to favour R. Jones based on him starting over Lee in the Autumn series) is given strong minutes to continue their international development. As the Scarlets are done in European competition, these games will provide both men their stiffest competition. Things are brighter on the other side, as there really isn't a lot different between Paul James and Gethin Jenkins, and really James is probably under-appreciated as he can be a destructive scrummager (which let's be honest, we cannot say about Jenkins as good as he is) and is adequate in the loose. Wales may miss the defensive work Jenkins put in, but the back 5 of the pack should be picking up that slack when he goes. If things go past James and Ryan Bevington is called upon then the whole scrum effort of the Welsh could be compromised. Though good in the loose him scrummaging remains unimpressive even at club level. I tried to see how often he was penalized at the scrum in his short 11 cap Test career but in lieu of that true specific information, I will just point out that he has been penalized 6 times in 278 minutes of Test rugby, or once every 46 minutes. There is basically a 50% chance when Bevington walks onto the field that he will turn possession over to the opponent via a penalty. With a lot more time and zeal we could probably figure out what an acceptable average for that would be, but for now I will accept that this is not a positive trait for someone coming on late in a game that could hinge on each infraction called. He is still young (25) and will have plenty of opportunity to improve this skill so each game will be a chance to build on his development. Can these young men become key players in the next good Welsh front-row? I don't know, maybe, and they certainly will be given many opportunities. But right now if injuries arise, which is a possibility with the amount of mileage that Jenkins and A. Jones have on their bodies, then this year's campaign could be in trouble with Wales unable to turn scrums into strong possession. And there is 300 words on the Welsh prop situation that you probably did not consider. ANYWAYS.
This is a settled squad, I've quoted in my other pieces that they had the top defence in the tournament last year in terms of tackling percentage (88%) and were an exceptionally disciplined side, conceding only 46 penalties last year, for a shade over 9 per game. I think they have a good chance to be at the top of the standing, they have a good game to start as the Italians come into the Millennium Stadium before heading out to meet Ireland in Dublin. The Italy game should be in the bag, regardless and the Irish will pose a difficult challenge, and the teams have split results since 2008, but this team has the ability to win this game tightly and from that point, the field could be open. They would still have Scotland to play, and will feel very confident against the English. France seems a wildcard, and this tournament feels like it could go a lot of ways, but as two-time defending champions, it is hard to overlook Wales as the favourites.
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