ENG/NZ

Dan Carter takes on the English defence (c) GETTY Images

Ahead of the test series between England and the All Blacks there has been an understandable emphasis on a disparity of experience between the two sides. You would be hard pressed to come across a report previewing the match that does not highlight the collective cap totals of the starting XVs, and since the New Zealand team more than doubles their English counterparts (779-303), it is understandable that this feature has become part of the overall narrative of the series. 

If England lose Saturday, which they will, it is true that part of the reason will be because the All Blacks were more experienced and able to take advantage of a green England side. That the England team that won in 2012 was also vastly inexperienced compared to that Kiwi side hasn't been mentioned in what I've read.

What hasn't been talked about so much (maybe it doesn't need saying?) is that the Kiwis are collectively more talented and play superior rugby, which is why they will win the series. The England side for this week is missing a plethora of front line talent from injury and rest and had the XV that had featured for the previous 6 Nations been available, this gap in experience would not be the conversational crutch that it has become. The side is what it is though, and England coach Stuart Lancaster and his staff will have to construct a game plan that will give this side a chance at victory. 

With this subject in mind however I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at the test experiences of the teams' XV and create some separation in the numbers, mainly the distinction in starts and bench appearances:

	New Zealand				England
Position	Player	Starting	Bench		Player	Starter	Bench
Fullback	I. Dagg	35	3		M. Brown	21	5
Wing	B, Smith	17	9		M. Yarde	2	0
Outside	C. Smith	71	4		M. Tuilagi	20	3
Inside	M. Nonu	73	15		K. Eastmond	1	1
Wing	C. Jane	38	7		J. May	6	0
Flyhalf	A. Cruden	15	14		F. Burns	2	1
Scrumhalf	A. Smith	24	2		D. Care	24	23
Loosehead	T. Woodcock	95	12		J. Marler	17	2
Hooker	D. Coles	4	11		R. Webber	2	3
Tighthead	O. Franks	46	8		D.Wilson	10	24
Lock	B. Retallick	16	8		J. Launchbury	17	2
Lock	S. Whitelock	36	15		G. Parling	17	5
Blindside	L. Messem	24	5		J. Haskell	34	16
Openside	R. McCaw	118	6		C. Robshaw	25	0
No. 8	J. Kaino	44	4		B. Morgan	12	8
		656	123			210	93

*cap totals include British & Irish Lions Tests.

This is a positional compilation between the New Zealand and England sides announced on Thursday. By now we know Ben Youngs and his 26 and 12 for 38 cap statistics will likely be starting at scrumhalf in place of Danny Care. I have not edited the post to reflect this, however it does not change the core topics at all. For consideration, I did not present a breakdown for which teams each player had earned their caps against, because a Test is a Test. Even Canada made life difficult for New Zealand in the 2011 World Cup. 

On caps: Far be it from me to take any of the caps away from a player, it is a tremendous accomplishment to play a Test for England or New Zealand, as All Black myth has enforced. But caps are not created equal: to come off the bench to play 5 minutes of a game against Italy compared to starting against the Springboks are two opposite challenges, and for my perspective should not be weighed equally if we are talking about experience in the Test arena. This is not a slight in the least, these players are elite talents and are in the squads participating in training and improving alongside everyone else. 

But it would also be a conceit to talk about the collective caps between teams and not distinguish between those selected in a XV and those being earned by reserved, in a sometimes honorary manner (as we will see with Rob Webber's first caps). 44% of the caps the pundits are totting for England have been off the bench, compared to 18.7% for the Kiwis. So really the totals are even more lopsided, New Zealand tripling the starting totals of their counterparts. David Wilson for example has 34 caps, 24 (or 71%) have been off the bench for a 15-20 minute hit out, and his only recent starts have been to give Dan Cole a break, as Cole is so vastly superior that only injury prevents him from pulling on the #3 shirt. Wilson is a good player, of course, but this says something about the gulf in talent (New Zealand has this with Owen Franks being superior then the men behind him on the charts, as well) between option 1 and 2 that his starts are few and far between. Cole, like Franks, is the starter when he is available. When the side is announced for the second Test in Dunedin on the 14th, the amount of changes will show what players from this side are true first-choices for England (injuries withstanding), and this will change the dynamic of the conversation.

Starters, typically, play the majority of the game because they are the best player available in a position as determined by the selectors. A coach might say they picked a "group to do a job", but I think you pick the best team available to you and hope they execute the game plan. This is why the New Zealand side is so settled and has been largely the same across years: the coaches pick the best side and they execute that week's plan. Ergo, a starting cap means more than a bench cap to me. Dispute that, sure, but if you're reading this you've probably played rugby and you know it meant more to start than it did to come off the bench.

On game time: When you account for the fact that Danny Care* and James Haskell have nearly 100 caps combined, equalling a third of the English total, it becomes apparent that this side is really short on real game experience. The back-line of this XV, talented and filled with potential from the likes of Marland Yarde, Kyle Eastmond, Johnny May, and Freddy Burns, is short of game time to really prepare themselves for the intensity they will face in this match. Yarde has 160 Test minutes, Eastmond 95, May 395, Burns 161. This is a confluence of these players being very young and thus lower on the totem poll in the last year. They will show skill and have some really great moments over this series, but there is no matching the merciless efficiency and experience of this All Black side. In defence is where they will be exposed, and that will be demonstrated time and again.

In the forwards England has players who have decent starting experience and bar one player will be ready for what awaits. The outlier is Rob Webber who has been around England Rugby's Elite Player Squad for the last couple of seasons but the predominance of Tom Youngs and Dylan Hartley have kept at no higher than third in the pecking order, confined to 147 minutes of Test competition. There hasn't been much rotation either, as his appearances off the bench have netted 5, 8, and 6 minutes respectively, token gestures to putting in the work at training. 147 minutes out of a possible 400 (36.8% for those keeping track at home) in the games he has participated in may mark his as a man to be exposed. The All Blacks will certainly be targeting him and doing everything they can to disrupt him at the lineout and on England's attacking scrums. 

Packing down opposite him is Dane Coles, anointed the heir to the 2 jersey and over the last two All Black seasons has gained experience from Andrew Hore and Keven Mealamu, two of the most capped hookers in world history. The All Blacks developed a succession plan that would ensure that the next player in line would have ample experience when they're called on to become a fixture in the XV, and as part of that plan called for much longer appearances off the bench, averaging 27+ minutes. His starts were shorter by comparison, but more time on the field has resulted in a smooth transition and fluid knowledge of the team plan.

Maybe it is unfair to bring the development pathways of two separate nations into discussion, as the particulars are so different. There are fewer teams in New Zealand, fewer players filtering to the top compared to England, and long standing All Blacks Hore and Mealamu were long shots to make the 2015 World Cup squad after the victory on home soil in 2011, so a replacement had to be identified and brought in. In England, this sort of player identification occurs on a more macro scale; Lancaster's thinking seems to be to make the player pool as wide as possible, so we have seen greater variety of players come in to the side, thrown against the wall to see if they stick. If they don't show much (see: Tomkins, Joel) then on to the "next solution to England's problems" or whoever the "form" player is that week. Nonu and Dagg have been fairly average over the last couple of Super Rugby seasons, but put them in the black strip and they can be world beaters. Lancaster seems to have his guys (Billy Twelvetrees for example) that are being given a longer shot at showing their Test talent, so in a years time it will be interesting to see where the cap totals are for this England XV.

Summary: In the end, the cap totals being bantered about are as reflective of an England side that is missing several true starters as they are a New Zealand side that has remained mostly unchanged for several years now. New blood is brought in, then becomes key functional talent (Aaron and Ben Smith, Brodie Retallick etc) but the likes of Richie McCaw, Ma'a Nonu, Tony Woodcock, and Conrad Smith have been together for years, won Tri-Nations and a World Cup, and have the sort of talent the will guide the side to victory.

*yes yes, unavailable.