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| Ben Smith takes on James O'Conner (c) Getty Images |
WIth an eye looking back to the last two years, I decided to have some fun by look at all the back-three starters (using Argentina's entry as the sensible point of reviewing data) to see which players were making the most of their carries: who had the highest average metres each time they touched the ball. I used the statistics from the Rugby Championship site since I assume this is the official record, but I did notice some incongruities with their data and that from Statsguru, so I guess there could be some disputing the numbers. As this is a comparative project though, I do not believe that any difference would alter the overall picture these excel sheets paint.
One of the highlights from last year's tournament was Ben Smith stamping his mark on the Test environment and cementing his place in the All Black back-three. He'd been in blistering form the last couple seasons for the Highlanders, and though he was capped in 2009, he had to wait until the 2012 June Tests to find himself placed in the squad consistently. While his performance that year were quality, and allowed him to maintain his place, it was in 2013 that he exploded with a record-setting Rugby Championship that set the pace and made him a finalist for the IRB Player of the Year award. I thought it would be interesting to review his performance against his counterparts and try to evaluate his production based on something different than tries, since those, for a winger, are not always of their doing.
The Data:
2012 Championship Review
2013 Championship Review
The idea here was to simply divide the total number of metres gained by the total number of carries made by each respective player. I used four different sheets for each year to provide different ways to look at the information: 1) Individual starter information in their nation groups 2) a player comparison ranking all starters by meters-per-carry ('average gain' I've found is another term) 3) positional comparisons, separated into fullbacks, weak and strong-side wingers (11s and 14s) to account for how teams may have employed players across positions (ex: Willie Le Roux getting time at fullback and on the wing) 4) a round-by-round comparison showing player performance in each Test.
It would have been ideal to include all players who made appearances in the back-three to further the comparison, but unfortunately it is difficult to determine what players went where based on substitution information. If a starter played more than 60 minutes, I did not look at substitutions. Since back three players are rarely substituted, there were few instances where this information was necessary. The only instances that I included were Charles Piutau's outstanding performance coming on for Isreal Dagg and Jan Serfontein coming on for Bryan Habana, both in 2013. In the Habana case, I could not find clear information as to who actually played on the wing, whether it was Serfontein, JJ Engelbrecht or Jean de Villiers, the latter two both have totals that could be the result of being on the wing, so I used the straight substitution in this instance. Ben Smith, the casual genesis of this story, was on the bench for most of the 2012 Championship, but he is listed as at centre by Statsguru and I have no real way of corroborating each game where he played, when he played. His impact was only felt last year.
Below is a quick glimpse at the outcome of the data collection, though by viewing the respective publications you'll have a better understanding of the statements below.
2012 Average Gain
| Barnes | 10.833 |
| Rodriguez | 10.286 |
| Habana | 8.641 |
| Gear | 8.6 |
| Dagg | 7.85 |
| Mvovo | 7.667 |
| Camacho | 7.139 |
| Amorosino | 6.81 |
| AVERAGE | 6.146 |
| Jane | 6.024 |
| Savea | 5.917 |
| Beale | 5.818 |
| Ioane | 5.089 |
| Kirchner | 4.514 |
| Hougaard | 3.957 |
| Shipperley | 3.714 |
| Cummins | 3.6 |
| Agulla | 3.333 |
| Ashley-Cooper | 2.5 |
| Mitchell | 2.2 |
| Harris | 2 |
2013 Average Gain
| Tomane | 10.421 |
| Ashley-Cooper | 8.778 |
| Piutau | 8.571 |
| Savea | 8.436 |
| B. Smith | 8.395 |
| Le Roux | 8.269 |
| Folau | 7.478 |
| Habana | 7.069 |
| AVERAGE | 6.92 |
| Agulla | 6.7 |
| Kirchner | 6.381 |
| Dagg | 6.381 |
| O'Conner | 6.167 |
| Hernandez | 6.138 |
| Imhoff | 6.1 |
| Cummins | 5.8 |
| Mogg | 5.611 |
| Amorosino | 5.556 |
| Basson | 4.25 |
| Serfontain | 3 |
| Camacho | 2.455 |
The results of this little project do not come completely down to the individuals themselves, as tactics and team play are a key factor in player performance, and these are just some of the counting stats we can use to evaluate our beloved game, and those we chose to love or hate. The average in 2013 was substantially higher, just a little under a yard-per-carry, bolstered by two blow-out wins against Argentina by Australia and South Africa.
Notes:
In 2012, fullbacks really got to stretch their legs, which might infer that there was more counter-attacking happening after kicks. Israel Dagg's numbers dropped year to year for example, which could mean that there was better kick coverage shutting down his running or that he was shifting the ball to his two stud wingers. Cory Jane isn't the best runner, but is known to be a fantastic kick-receiver which may have allowed Dagg more running opportunities in 2012.
Hosea Gear was notably hard-done by but that is the case for many All Blacks, as he put in 3 fantastic performances but it was not enough to stop Julian Savea from supplanting him. That all the New Zealand players were above or close to the average line tells you both the quality at their disposal and the manner in which they play the game.
The Argentinian contingent had a real mixed bag over these two years, Camacho and Agulla swapping spots as the most effective runner, though the depressed fortunes of their outside backs in 2013 mirrors their over-all tournament performance which is to say, they were a let down. Of course, suffering two massive defeats to book-end your season does mean that your players' numbers are going to suffer. Hard to make yards when you never have the ball.
It probably cannot be stressed enough about the impact that Israel Folau had on the fortunes of Australia, as he gave them a devastating runner to build their back-three around. There have been 12 different players slot into these positions during this 12 game survey through injury, behaviour and lacklustre performance. The lack of a consistent roster meant a loss of cohesion and understanding of each other's responsibilities and strengths. Say what you will about him, James O'Conner was the Wallabies most useful player in the games he played before being removed from the squad, though Israel Folau quickly made everyone forget about the young phenom. The production by O'Conner was a higher standard than most of the back three players used by Australia in the two tournaments surveyed, and despite the off-field issues that got him kicked off the team, on it he was a vital cog.
One player who did take his chance with O'Conner gone was Joe Tomane, who benefited from a massive game in Round 6 against Argentina. He continued to play well into the autumn tests, but as he is injured right now that means one wing spot is uncertain. The recent loss of Nick Cummins does not help the Wallabies depth issue, but with Kurtley Beale back to his best and other backline options emerging, there are pieces to help coach Ewan MacKenzie build on the improvements from last year. Adam Ashley-Cooper had a big game in 2013 on the wing (after a rough spot at fullback in 2012) and could be utilised there again this year so that both he and Tevita Kuridrani can be on the field together.
For the Boks, the Habana-Le Roux-Kirchner trio performed exceptionally well last year, and I must admit that Zane Kirchner performed much better per this data than I anticipated. There was an argument to be made even to keep that trio intact, but Le Roux's dazzling creativity and ingenuity coming into the backline can not be resisted, and Kirchner is on the outside looking in. The coaching staff will be hoping that they can find a complementary player (Cornal Hendricks is the current flavour) who can complement the two stalwarts while bettering Bjorn Basson's performance last year. Given the continued growth in the South African style of play, it may not be too hard of an accomplishment.
Conclusions:
For the 2013 review, and to the end of this article, there were three players who put in consistent, dynamic performances that put them in a class of their own: Julian Savea, Willie Le Roux and Ben Smith. 6 games of pure class each, bringing a different dynamic to the pitch that helped put New Zealand and South Africa in a class of their own. Only the volume of tries by Ben Smith really separate the three, and it would be fair to say with this data and comparison that this would place Smith at the top of these players.
For the purposes of this exercise, you'd be hard pressed to top Bryan Habana as the most productive player over the last two tournaments for this position group, given that each year he has been above-average with his gains and a real strike runner, tallying 10 tries total. He has had the luck of staying healthy (well, basically) and being a first-choice player both years. The long list of players profiled here will testify that this is an uncommon pairing. Habana's 2012 performance for this comparison outshines Smith's 2013, as his average gain is substantially better while he only sacrifices 1 try, on a team that scored with less frequency.
Who is better and who is worse is not the point of this project though, but to see what alternative ideas we can come up with when we talk about players across positions and teams. It is not exactly scientific to say that since the All Blacks score more tries, their wingers will score more tries, and as a result one of those wingers might bag a couple meat pies. Their outside backs as a group are making the best gains of the teams, and so this lends to the idea that the All Blacks' style of play is creating running lanes and space for the likes of Smith and Savea, and consequentially these players are able to turn in all star performances having the opportunity to maximize their talents.
There is a lot of work to be done trying to figure out some causality in this sport, so when we're talking about individual players I believe it might be more useful to look at the single moments of a game to measure his efforts. In this case, when the player has some measure of control: when the ball is in his hands, and how many meters is he able to make each time he gets to stretch the legs.
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