At the Death

Ryan Crotty crosses at the death. Poor Ireland (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

This post was started during a conversation with a fellow fan online while we discussed how badly the New Zealand All Blacks were going to crush the USA Eagles in their game on November 1st. My counterpart said something to the effect of "If the US keep it close in the first 15-20 minutes than I think they'll be alright", which is normally a nice idea but since that left 60 minutes of ruthless All Black domination, and with the defeat of Australia at the death still fresh in my mind, I replied that the chances of it being anything less than a complete romp were probably as close to 0 as is possible.

In my mind it was the last 20 minutes that I'd seen this All Blacks side pull away from teams, and what sort of blogger be if I didn't take the time to examine and qualify that narrative? A lazy one is the answer. And since I am not lazy (merely busy, they're different) I have reviewed all 38 test matches the All Black have played since the end of Rugby World Cup 2011 to see if this idea holds true. 
My recent posts have been very black-themed of late and I'll keep no secrets: when it comes to test rugby I'm fairly obsessed about the All Blacks. Not in a fanboy way or anything. I actually don't cheer for them to win (I think it's healthy that they lose, for rugby in general) but more in the way they play and the almost ease that they end up winning games. Their tries can seem ridiculously simple (2013 try baiting) while other nations have to work very hard for every single point. There is an inevitability about the outcome, that thinking the other team might come out victors is more an academic pursuit since then something grounded in reality. I always marvel at the various "How to beat the All Blacks" articles out there because were it as simple as is written, then it would not be such a rare occurrence. But it is in fact the hardest thing to in world sport: in their past 38 games they have lost twice, and drawn twice. 34-2-2. No team comes close to this sort of record in the first or even second tier of rugby nations. 
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Talk of performance in each quarter is nothing new, and coaches in the post-game discussions will often refer to team play in a particular quarter (say, this recent game) and the effect that played in the outcome. It is possible to break a game down into even tinier time segments (10 minutes either side of the half time whistle for example) but for sample size purposes, I felt it was much easier to draw conclusions from these time brackets. I invite any counterpoints to this idea, always interested in having a dialogue.

The All Blacks and the Springboks are ready to engage

The Data:

The Data! (click)

For this experiment, I have sorted each game by year (Test seasons 2012, 2013 and 2014 to the end of the Bledisloe challenge) and then broken up each game by 20 minute increments, or quarters. The cover sheet is an overall review of the data from the subsequent charts, along with overall averages that highlight the game trends over this period. Additionally, all years have a breakdown of performance against each opposition faced by the All Blacks that year. So please, take the opportunity to review the information gathered.

Alright, now that everyone has had a chance to look over and scrutinize the numbers, it is time to provide some insights. Overall there are some interesting trends, I don't have an explanation for how they are happening exactly with respect to in-game action, but that's not the point of this post.

Below is the overall scoring differentials in each quarter, starting with 2012 at the top, and working our way down to the current year with the bottom numbers being the combination of the three years. In 12 possible chances, there was only one instance where New Zealand was outscored, in the first quarter of the 2013 season.   

Things are close so far in 2014, though the explosion of scoring against the USA Eagles November 1 will bring that number up. How things look at the end of the November tests will be interesting, but I cannot see it being in the negatives like 2013. This year's team has been slow to strike in the first 20 minutes as well, scoring a try on only 3 occasions, and 6 times the score has been level or they have been behind. However, they have been able to continually separate themselves over the remainder of the game, and since the majority of opposition scoring is happening at the start of the game, their lack of proficiency at the start is not a great worry.

Perhaps teams are better prepared for All Black tactics in the first period of game or are more physically intense, matching and sometimes surpassing the level put forward by the Kiwis. South Africa's victory at the end of this year's Rugby Championship tournament was a side that was pushing itself to its limit, outpacing the All Blacks for 60 minutes before the pitch was tipped and New Zealand came storming back. Were it not for a 55-metre kick by Pat Lambie (everyone please get over the whole TMO thing here, nobody should be making 55 metre kicks), the Springbok's efforts would have been wasted. Leading for 60 minutes is no guarantee of victory over New Zealand (if a side gets that far) and unless all players are willing to extend themselves for the full 80 minutes then the only outcome will be defeat for the All Blacks' opposition.

In the second and forth quarters (minutes 21-40 and 61-80), New Zealand flat-out blitzed the opposition, outscoring them by 197 and 181 points respectively. The team was slightly less prolific during the third stanza, but the gap is still substantial: 167 points more than their opposition. This is done through prolific try scoring which has a higher tally than their penalty kicking (somewhat uncommon for Top 10 IRB nations, only Argentina and South Africa really compare. Japan feasts on exceptionally mediocre competition -sorry buds) and indicates a collective effort to convert opportunities into tries, and a belief to make it so. Other sides may be interested in taking their 3 point opportunities when they can, while the All Blacks appear to favour attacking constantly. It is obviously working. 

Putting a face to the numbers, below is a chart showing the scoring trends of the All Blacks (in black) and their opposition (red):


Moreover, this chart shows the separation in these 38 matches in total points scored, highlighting again how rapidly the scoreline differences between New Zealand and its opposition are expanded. In the end, the All Blacks nearly double the opposition's point total, 1195 to 600. The 2nd ranked team in the world doesn't even come close to this sort of domination. And it should be noted, 6 of these 38 games have come against this 2nd ranked side (hint it's South Africa), who the All Blacks are 5-1 against during this period.

As the game progresses, the opponent is less likely to score points, with the All Blacks juggernaut taking off. In the 60 minutes to end the game (or, "the rest of the game") the Kiwis are able to suppress opposition scoring rates, and thus perpetuate the scoring disparity while their scoring rate maintains itself. We can infer from this that as games go on opponents have the ball less in the All Blacks territory, and that since they are typically behind on the scoreboard have to give up penalty kicks in favour of a chance to score a try. Based on the numbers, their chances rarely amount to much. The All Blacks are a team that kick away the ball at a higher than average rate but this allows them to keep pushing their opposition down into the other side of the field, and make them climb uphill to the New Zealand try line. They do not need to have the majority of possession to win the game as they can strike from anywhere and their mindset is always in attack mode (see highlights above). 



Building on charts above, the most interesting numbers in the end for me shake down like this:

6.34-5.02

9.26-4.08

7.87-3.47

7.97-3.21

31.45-15.79

Those that looked at the sheet above will recognize that as the average scoring pace in each quarter between the All Blacks (left numbers) and their opponents (right numbers). We can see the incline in red slowing down considerably. During this period of study, it has been easier for opposition to score in the first 20 minutes in the game then at any other point; the All Blacks offering up a shade over 5 points per game in this quarter. Scoring early on against New Zealand is important from a psychological perspective and a scoreboard perspective, because as the game wears on the All Blacks shut down their opponents. In the final 20 minutes over these 38 test matches, opponents have scored little more than a penalty on average. 

Conclusions:

The All Blacks are a resourceful side, the selectors have the opportunity to pick from a continuous supply of game-breaking talent, and that talent is consistently able to perform in critical moments when called upon. Whether unheralded Ryan Crotty or redemption story-turned-good Malakai Fekitoa scoring in the fall seconds to secure victory, Kieran Read providing a dazzling piece of magic or Ben Smith impossibly powering his way over the try line, players deliver in every game, different players stepping up to bring the team to victory.

It is true that the first 20 minutes will see an opposition side be given a glimmer of hope, especially these past two seasons, but once the clock ticks over to 21, the light slowly starts dimming as the blackness begins to take over, and by the end all that is left is the empty feeling of defeat. We all know it to be true, as rugby fans. These current All Blacks are irresistible, a dominating force looking to better the version that was crowned World Champions in 2011 after many years of hurt. They are not complacent, based on all the sound bites coming from the camps, they have a coach that is revered as one of the best (named IRB 'Coach of the Year' in 2012 and 2013) and they have every tool in the toolbox. Opposition offensive are slowly strangled while New Zealand averages a try at least in each of the final three quarters to push further and further away from those in the other jerseys. 
They probably are not your favourite team, because they have probably relentlessly thrashed your favourite team, but it is worth knowing that when your boys do end up losing to the All Blacks, in the end they didn't have much of a chance to begin with.

New Zealand’s Malakai Fekitoa scores the death blow against Australia. (c) Jason O'Brien/Action Images