Injury Tracking in the Australian Conference

Hello hello, it has been a while. Not for a lack of work, mind you, as there are always lots of ideas and posts in the works, and the rugby calendar never ends. But had some other stuff going on, life, ya know.

I have been enjoying this Super Rugby season, with the World Cup approaching and an influx of players coming back to stake a claim in the national sides along with those already here pushing for selection, we have seen some tantalizing rugby so far. The New Zealand conference, as always, is competitive and the battle at the top of the South African and Australian groups has been enjoyable to watch.

One of the issues every team faces throughout the season is injuries, and while some teams get lucky and have good health for the key players, some never even get the chance to run their preferred XV onto the field, and bank their season on players who would otherwise be on the reserves bench.

Really, this is an article about the Queensland Reds and their horrorshow season. Since the departure of Ewan MacKenzie the franchise has been struggling to find the sort of form that led them to a championship in 2011, and Richard Graham’s current record of 14-36 has a Super Rugby head coach (I put 2013 under the rule of Ewan McKenzie, even if Graham had the title of "Head Coach" to McKenzie's "Director of Coaching") has led to a lot of scrutiny about his future (old news for some). It is likely that a new man will be taking the reigns in 2016 when the team starts life without its iconic fulcrum of Will Genia and Quade Cooper (well at least 1 of the 2 is leaving) in the halves, and the province could be set for a lengthy rebuild.

As for the current team, their defence has been poor, and over the last two years they have struggled to play 80 minutes. Their discipline has been about average (some interesting work tracking this from SA: 2013 and 2014 to go along with the SANZAR data on yellow cards) though some work will need to be done about their rate of conceding penalties. Some basic skills are missing and watching the team can be agonizing due to their lack of shape and direction.

And while those criticisms are valid, and the threat to Graham’s job very real, one of the reasons for the team’s struggle is the state of the squad and the sheer volume of front-line players missed. Over the past couple of weeks I have started to go back and track the instances of injury to the Australian conference teams (the amount of work to expand this to all Super Rugby sides would be beyond my scope at this point. Just look at the current injury list for an idea) in an effort to highlight the crisis occurring in Brisbane since the start of the season.

I have created a spreadsheet for each team, and am updating them pretty much on a weekly basis. I have provided hyperlinks to articles for the respective injury and when a player returns. The colours are pretty self explanatory, and the number of days listed is how long the player was injured, however that information is just an educated guess on my part.

Below are the charts you can scroll through, with hyperlinks to the spreadsheets themselves:

Brumbies



Rebels



Reds



Waratahs




Western Force  

It should come as no surprise that the teams that have been most successful this year (the Brumbies and Waratahs) are the teams that have seen the least days lost to injury. Being able to continually select your best players is a luxury often forgotten in this sport, and with the Reds and Force dipping deep down into their squad each week and different line-ups experienced on a weekly basis it certainly does make it hard to obtain the desired result of a win. There is always an expectation to perform at the professional level, and this is an uncompromising sport where injuries are a common occurrence. But to bemoan a team that has burned through its first 4 options at fly-half (Cooper, Paia'aua, Hunt and O'Conner, even if those are not exactly great) and has a converted scrum half manning the position is a bit unreasonable. 

The Waratahs and Brumbies (well, until recently) were able to pick their first-choice axis from 9-12, two combinations that are easily the best in the conference but also the same players competing for those Wallaby jerseys. Being able to beat up on two injury ravaged teams twice a year plus having another game against the still-developing Rebels means these sides should be up 6 wins. If there was a strength-of-schedule statistic for Super Rugby then both these sides would not be high up on the scale. 

The Rebels meanwhile can attribute their struggles to a young squad, but they have been progressing tremendously and have a desirable squad full of U20 Australians that could see them evolve into a genuine challenger in this conference. Of course, as this year has shown, health is a key factor there and if you are missing key playmakers then your whole plan can be compromised. 

The opportunity that injuries present to the youth in these squads is an important consideration. In Perth the Force have dealt with serious injuries to their first, second, and third choice 7s (in order, Hodgson, Alcock, Cottrell) but that has allowed local product Kane Koteka to come through and gain some Super Rugby playing time (before being concussed). In Brisbane, Marco Kotze has impressed in the Reds second row gaining time off the bench with the absence of Wallaby Rob Simmons and Ed O'Donoghue long term, and James Horwill short-term. The Reds actually had a strong recruiting class this off-season, and their squad overall is flush with youthful talent that should serve them well in the future. Robbie Coleman has taken to the Brumbies 15 jersey so well that even if Jesse Mogg was healthy he'd have a hard time breaking into the team. 

The Brumbies team depth is being tested as a result of a number of injuries to key players (Sio, White, Kuridrani, Toomua) and with the way their season ends (in order, Highlanders, Waratahs, @Stormers, @Lions, bye, Bulls, @Force, Crusaders) it will be a tough task for this side in making it to the finals series, let alone getting out of their conference. If they fall short, I doubt though that Stephen Larkham will be facing questions over his future, as the answer of "injuries to our first-choice 9, 10, and 13" seems like something that will be offered and accepted. 

Richard Graham, who didn't have the opportunity once to pick a full-strength side once (let's say... Slipper, Hanson, Holmes, Simmons, Horwill, Thompson, Gill, Schatz; Genia, Cooper; O'Conner, Fainga'a, Kerevi, Turner, Hunt but you could convince me to change up the backline), has likely been living out of his suitcase for the better part of two months now, and while you can make legitimate complaints about the team, not having most of your actual good players **Cooper**cough**cough** running the show makes it quite difficult to hold him to the same expectations. This is not a defence of Graham but merely a chance to see, in chart form, the real issues each team has faced. You would be hard press to argue that Jake White could have turned this side around with the players actually available. 

The last two seasons in Queensland have been bare, and when you reach high places you create lofty standards. In this sport, and in Super Rugby, you realistically could only expect to have a 3-5 year window of success, given the attritional nature of the sport and the way the World Cup cycles affect player contracts. We have just watched this Reds team's window close given the pending player departures, but next year the team is unlikely to experience such injury issues, and the experience gained by this year's side alone should result in a marked improvement. Well, at least that is the hope they will have to start selling.