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| Webb Ellis Cup |
Speaking of predictions, I have wrangled up a few friends and colleagues for a bracket challenge, with all of the difficulty of March Madness and none of the popularity or reward. There is nothing on the line here other than the reputation of the individual as a rugby pundit, and subsequently exposing yourself as the irredeemable failure you are when Team A upsets Team B and everything is thrown into the abyss. The purpose of this exercise is to choose the the winner and runner-up from each pool (structure here) and determine how the play downs will play out. There is a scoring system, but that is just for internal purposes so that the group will know who to ridicule and how badly.
Like most tasks in life, this was not easy to finish. If you are like me, you would probably hyperventilate into a bag while curled up into a ball under the desk at work because of the overwhelming despair you feel. I have enough trouble writing the article itself, so actually completing the task and sealing my selections off was particularly daunting. But that said, sometimes all you can do is close your eyes, take a deep breathe, and fall back into cold, clammy hands of fate.
Here are my picks:
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Your derision is anticipated and understood, though I hope that some people will see this the same way (or not!).
Though there has been some complaints about the draw of the pools, the reality is there are more than 8 good teams in international rugby now. No matter what a proud nation would have been going home earlier than expected however you change the draw. With the advancement the Pacific island nations have experienced (but not their politics) in the last 4 years, there are 12 teams that could make reasonable arguments for the 8 quarter-final spots. World Rugby will be ecstatic about this increased completion, and with the way the pools are set up as there are potentially amazing match-up that could occur in the final 8 (at least in mine they do. You are welcome, Joe Fan!) In the first play-down, one of South Africa, England or Australia could be going home! That is incredible; an incredible hardship that will cause outrage in each respective nation (or more likely casual indifference in Australia). To me, that is what makes this year's tournament so wonderful. There could be a repeat of the 2007 final, and it is important to consider that France have not bowed out in the quarter-final round since 1991 (true!) so they could cause some tears as well. We will touch on this in more depth below.
Discussion of Methodology, or lack there of:
I debated and deliberated for most of the last two weeks on what my outcome would be, and almost all of it was exclusively about how to treat Pool A. I looked at the historical encounters, recent trends and performances, and team news, of course. I will briefly summarize each bracket in the hopes of offering something approaching justification:
For Pool A, I was unable to look beyond two facts: that England are playing at Twickenham and have had the recent upper hand on Australia, and that Wales cannot buy a win against Australia and appear to have been cursed by a coal-miner's gypsy widow.
The Welshmen have suffered 10 consecutive loses to the Wallabies (true!), which has caused no end of bitterness and concern within the Principality. While it would be easy to point to the Lions victory over Australia in 2013, won on the backs of Wales' players and coach, as evidence of their strength under fire, I am siding with what the recent records indicate: England will beat Wales and Australia in Twickenham, and Australia will recover from that pool loss to deliver a death blow to Welsh hopes on the 10th.
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| Savouring another victory |
South Africa, for all their supposed lack of dimension, still have enough fire power and brute strength to cruise through Pool B. Realistically, it is only when they come up against the All Blacks that their game deficiencies become apparent, which true of every team, so while Samoa will challenge them physically and Scotland will attempt to outrun them, there is too much class in the Springboks for that to happen.
The real tussle here is between Scotland and Samoa for second place, and in recent history the games have been very close affairs, and could have gone either way. While the thrashing in South Africa in 2013 was very revealing, I side with Scotland being an improved side that can hold up to the physical challenge while offering a challenging attack combined while banking on indiscipline from the Samoan side that will see Scotland through. I admit to being completely biased on this pick, and stand a good chance to eat my words (and saying that publicly absolves me of guilt now).
Only Pool C offered anything straight forward. All Blacks are awesome, and Argentina are also awesome, and they will out awesome the rest of the teams in this pool, of which two are genuinely terrible! Sorry Georgia and Namibia, but this will not be your year to break through.
The Georgians are renowned scrummagers and have dominated the second tier of European rugby, being champion 9 of the last 10 years in the European Nations Cup, but with the talent of the top two teams, the most they can expect is to tussle with Tonga (led by sublime captain Nili Latu) for third place and automatic qualification for the RWC2019 (wherever it happens).
As much as World Cups have become a time to fall in love with Jacques Burger (which I whole heartedly endorse, knowing that you will in the end), the new Namibian back-rower to fall for is Renaldo Bothma, a powerful No. 8 who is basically Duane Vermeulen-lite. Just look at him #bullocking:
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| Bothma on the run for the Shark (c) Getty |
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| All tangled up |
Bracketeering:
For the first game of the quarters in my bracket, Scotland will lose to the auld enemy because it is England at Twickenham, and I will let you take a look at how those games have gone in the past. 32 years and counting.
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The Irish game plan is built more on soaking up pressure defensively than it is on attacking rugby. That said, it is a team that can score, averaging a shade over 35 points for in the Joe Schmidt era (here), though if you exclude the tier two nations of that table (having shipped 104 points in the 3 games) it drops to approximately 25 a game.
4.2 - @IrishRugby averaged the fewest offloads (4.2) per game at the 2015 @rbs_6_nations, @EnglandRugby averaged the 2nd most (11.6). Style.
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) September 5, 2015
Still respectable of course, and Sexton's ability to keep the scoreboard moving with his boot will force Argentina to play the wide running game they have been developing under Daniel Hourcade. The Pumas performances in the Rugby Championship, more emblematic of their true talent, on the whole have been of substantial quality, and I pick them expecting the sort of performance they provided in beating South Africa in Durban.  |
| Johnny Sexton dots down |
For QF3, I have South Africa against Australia, and this is another toss up. Two teams with the ability to beat each other, who will not be afraid of each other. Not much separates the two, as a potential Wallaby backrow of Fardy, Hooper and Pocock will match the Springboks at the breakdown and cause plenty of turnover ball for an electric backline. I am putting my faith in Australia coach Michael Cheika having drilled his system into the team and the players' ability to execute it. It will be a battle that will likely be decided in the dying minutes, and kicking will be crucial, both at goal and in the air. The brain says South Africa, but the gut goes with Australia to eke out a victory.
The forth quarter-final of this bracket is New Zealand-France, a rematch of the quarter-final pairing from the 2007 Rugby World Cup which saw France controversially dispose of the All Blacks in Cardiff. Oh, and the two finalists from 2011.
With France, it is clichéd to say you do not know what side will show up, and they have the talent and mindset to win any game. They would not be concerned about playing the All Blacks, and pose a particular quandary because they very nearly could have beaten New Zealand in the 2011 final. The odds though are still in New Zealand's favour due to their record, talent, and systems. Air tight defence, a combative pack and efficient use of the ball mean that by the time 80 minutes is up, New Zealand normally leave the park with a win. Coupled with their experience from the last World Cup (14 of the 31 players in this squad lefted the Webb Ellis Cup), their innate pursuit of perfection and overall talent, I would be a fool not to side with this team.
Semis:
At this point, it is all chaos, and if you are not prepared to lay down on your sword, then you probably do not have one to begin with. Semi-final 1 for me is a wonderful clash of the home boys, England, taking on an Argentinian side brimming with confidence after closing the door on Ireland (in my Dream the Impossible Dream world). And this will be a dangerous Pumas team in that light, but it is hard to ignore the weight of history here. England are 5-1 in playing Argentina in Twickenham, and pretty much obliterated them three times in 2013, their most recent encounters. So, sorry Pumas fans, but England narrowly slides through the door.
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| Bet you forgot about this, eh? |
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| via Wikipedia Commons, Thanks User Bob247! |
Oh, and defend it they will. By this point, neither team will be scared of the situation, even thought for many players this will be the biggest moment of their careers. I really do not think that England or New Zealand will be overawed playing on this stage; for both it is an expectation to be there. England couch Stuart Lancaster has employed every possible tool available to help the team try and gain as many slight advantages as possible. New Zealand? Steve Hanson has probably done something, but he also has world-class players in essentially every position (great front row, aerial ranging locks, McCaw, Read, the Smiths, Carter -sure-, SBW, Savea on and on). Their work around the breakdown clearing opposition is rarely touched on as their ball pilfering skill is immense, but to score points you need possession, and to retain possession you have to win the breakdown. Their line out is one of the best in the game, their aerial attack and kick coverage is on point, and Savea should be fit again and be back to his destructive self out on the wing.
I am not slighting England, they have a great pack that can do the tight work, but who in that group is going to break through the gain line and set up go-forward ball? Without Dylan Hartley their line-out is weaker, as Tom Youngs (for all he offers around the field) really seems to struggle to connect with his jumpers. I think New Zealand have the edge at the set piece as a result, and England's maul tactics, offensively and defensively, will need to be accurate. I think you can expect to see the weak-side winger for the All Blacks brought in on the first phase after the ball comes out of a line out maul and the English backrow (primarily responsible for tackling on the fringe of the breakdown) will need to have their heads up for that play or else New Zealand will be in behind their defence quickly, with the ball rapid progressing. They know how to beat England (here) and how to back themselves. I wish I could offer up a surprise winner, with some creative reasoning, but really I cannot see beyond New Zealand reclaiming the Webb Ellis Cup. If they do not win the tournament, then hats off to the team that performs exceptionally and knocks them off.
But that's just my opinion, ya know?
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