At the Death

Ryan Crotty crosses at the death. Poor Ireland (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

This post was started during a conversation with a fellow fan online while we discussed how badly the New Zealand All Blacks were going to crush the USA Eagles in their game on November 1st. My counterpart said something to the effect of "If the US keep it close in the first 15-20 minutes than I think they'll be alright", which is normally a nice idea but since that left 60 minutes of ruthless All Black domination, and with the defeat of Australia at the death still fresh in my mind, I replied that the chances of it being anything less than a complete romp were probably as close to 0 as is possible.

In my mind it was the last 20 minutes that I'd seen this All Blacks side pull away from teams, and what sort of blogger be if I didn't take the time to examine and qualify that narrative? A lazy one is the answer. And since I am not lazy (merely busy, they're different) I have reviewed all 38 test matches the All Black have played since the end of Rugby World Cup 2011 to see if this idea holds true. 

Super Rugby and Beyond

Richie McCaw holds the Bledisloe Cup (C) Getty Images

The final Bledisloe Cup match for 2014 is around the corner with the trophy already polished and placed at NZRU headquarters, and the Wallabies left to wonder what might have been had they taken the first game a month ago. The record defeat in Auckland on the 23rd of August left no doubt as to separation between the two sides, rendering the third game meaningless in deciding where the trophy is headed.

The hope created in the Autumn test series and the June Internationals had given the Wallaby fan-base some belief that the team was on track as the 7 game winning streak attested to, though it must be said only Wales and Ireland were truly class teams that Australia faced during that period. However they were secured, a win is a win is a win, and that is what the Wallaby fans care about most.

The returns thus far in the Rugby Championship have not been great, though you could excuse some of it to injury with various crises that the team has experienced in the back three and at hooker, as well as Queensland couple Quade Cooper and Will Genia being unavailable thus far. It would be a mistake however to use this issue as an excuse for a team that has struggled with simple decision making and basic skills. The hopes some Australian rugby union fans allowed themselves to indulge in after the Waratahs emerged victorious in this year’s Super Rugby competition had created heightened expectations and the side has struggled to perform at a similar level. Whether those hopes were reasonable or not to begin with remains to be seen.

Public Service Announcement

Know Fear

While the game at Homestead may not have been as captivating as possible due to the rain, it did grant us the pivotal knowledge that the proud Juggalo gang has found refuge from persecution by moving to New Zealand and becoming rugby fans.

Juggalos: Never Die. 

The next Gathering will be in Auckland on Saturday, August 23rd.

Looking at the 2012 and 2013 Rugby Championships

Ben Smith takes on James O'Conner (c) Getty Images

Now that the June Tests have come to a close with series victories for the SANZAR squads, it is time to turn our attention to the Rugby Championship which outside of a World Cup/British & Irish Lions year is the premier event on the calendar. Sure, it does not have the history of the 6 Nations, but the quality of rugby is the highest you will find and anyone doubting that can please watch the Round 6 clash between New Zealand and South Africa for proof (here. You are welcome). The rugby is just flat-out awesome and I am already excited about what a competent Australia would mean to the competition and the progress Argentina will make as they continue to search for their first victory. I will not be making any predictions in this article, but what I do believe is that this year's tournament will be even better than last year, which truly is saying something. 


WIth an eye looking back to the last two years, I decided to have some fun by look at all the back-three starters (using Argentina's entry as the sensible point of reviewing data) to see which players were making the most of their carries: who had the highest average metres each time they touched the ball. I used the statistics from the Rugby Championship  site since I assume this is the official record, but I did notice some incongruities with their data and that from Statsguru, so I guess there could be some disputing the numbers. As this is a comparative project though, I do not believe that any difference would alter the overall picture these excel sheets paint.   

ENG/NZ

Dan Carter takes on the English defence (c) GETTY Images

Ahead of the test series between England and the All Blacks there has been an understandable emphasis on a disparity of experience between the two sides. You would be hard pressed to come across a report previewing the match that does not highlight the collective cap totals of the starting XVs, and since the New Zealand team more than doubles their English counterparts (779-303), it is understandable that this feature has become part of the overall narrative of the series. 

If England lose Saturday, which they will, it is true that part of the reason will be because the All Blacks were more experienced and able to take advantage of a green England side. That the England team that won in 2012 was also vastly inexperienced compared to that Kiwi side hasn't been mentioned in what I've read.

What hasn't been talked about so much (maybe it doesn't need saying?) is that the Kiwis are collectively more talented and play superior rugby, which is why they will win the series. The England side for this week is missing a plethora of front line talent from injury and rest and had the XV that had featured for the previous 6 Nations been available, this gap in experience would not be the conversational crutch that it has become. The side is what it is though, and England coach Stuart Lancaster and his staff will have to construct a game plan that will give this side a chance at victory. 

Munster v Toulouse, Part 1

Source: Patrick Bolger/Getty Images Europe

This past weekend the Heineken Cup quarter-finals were staged and there was fantastic rugby on display in all four matches with some of Europe's best club sides slugging it out. I won't go into the details of the matches for the sake of those that have not seen the games yet (YouTube!) nor will this be a column on one of the more remarkable incidents that completely altered the outcome of one of the matches (for the record, yellow card at most in my eyes). 

The Munster v Toulouse game (highlights) on Saturday was a fascinating affair because of the contrasting performances of the two teams, Munster carving deep holes in the Toulouse defence while the French side bumbled their way around the field offensively, shorn of a real attacking plan it seemed. The scores of the Irishmen were built up methodically, as they out-muscled a pack that was considerably larger than theirs and used a maul that walked at will. It was truly a match that showed Munster are a sum greater than their parts. 

I want to highlight today, in two parts to make them more digestible, the one try put up by Toulouse (around the 2:50 mark of the highlight package) because it was the complete personification of their performance and a classic symbol for what French rugby means to so many: a try from nothing. Watch that try, and we'll discuss what happened in the lead up and the break that led to the score.

Some Thoughts based on 6 Nations penalty data

                                                             At its best                         (c) Getty Images

At the onset of the 6 Nations tournament when looking at some of the talking points for each team I discussed the penalty counts incurred last year and the impact that had for the respective sides. At the time I thought it would be interesting to look back once the Championship had concluded to examine the penalty count as a reflection of Referee performance. You often hear from the respective media of each nation that so-and-so don't like their country and always referee them harshly, and thought it would be interesting to see if there was any evidence of that during these 15 games.

Additionally, the last couple weeks of Super Rugby action has seen some terrible officiating recently that led to a discussion of relieving referees from their duties (which frankly should have happened but alas, another battle). There has been a lot of different debate about where to place the fault of these disputed contests: should it be on the players, who are committing infractions or is the referee and his interpretation wrong? Both sides have merit, poor officiating can have a disturbing effect on the direct outcome of a game, while players can also make poor choices.

The 6 Nations is a great spectacle because each match has the potential to be won by either side (even if it's a small chance) and because each point is valuable. Referees play a role in the outcome of matches, as their interpretation of each action . The point of this article though isn't to get bogged down in semantics about the intent of a referee, so let's look at some statistics!

Scotland: A Review

(c) PA Photos

"I talked about their game plan, their tactics, it's very difficult to see what they're doing" Jeremy Guscott on Scotland.

After watching the Scotland/England round 2 match-up I was very bothered by Scotland's performance because it felt like the first two rounds of the Championship at that time just ran so counter to the performances I remembered from last year. So I started to dig into the numbers a bit more and see just how delusional I had been about what happened last year.

In my 6 Nations preview for Scotland (here) I talked about their improved attack and scoring prowess in last year's tournament, and I was trying to be positive, but I wasn't looking or thinking about the whole picture at the time to understand the flaws in their game. I think as we have seen in their first three games in 2014, that positivity that was even there in the summer tour has mostly disappeared into a big team-wide malaise. Under Scott Johnson the team has secured some memorable wins and had the feeling of an improving side, but like his successor Andy Robinson those wins were built on the flawed performance of the other side (or their kicker *cough*Australia*cough*) and dogged defence by the Scots and when they got the result it was not often because they were the best side on the pitch. 

Pondering the scrums during le Crunch, 2nd Half

(c) Martin Bureau, AFP

Picking up from my previous post where we looked at the scrums in the first half of the England/France round 1 game, we will examine the engagements of the second half and see how and why France continued its dominance at this set piece. 

Second Half

We have to wait 11 minutes for the first test, and by this point an entirely new French front row is on, and Mako Vunipola has just stepped on to the field for his 14th cap to replace Marler at loosehead for England. Other things happened in the game as Luther Burrell has scored his first try in his first Test, and England now lead 18-16. I am going to take a leap of faith to assume that the impact of Yoann Maestri for Alexandre Flanquart in the French second row is negligible. Either way, early shifts for these replacements who will shape the possession for each team for the remainder of the game. 

Pondering the scrum during le Crunch, 1st half.

Joe Marler (centre) and Nicolas Mas battle on the pitch (c) PA Photos

I thought it would be interesting to look at the scrum battles during le Crunch to see how they told the story of the game and the ultimate French victory. This was a battle not just of great front rows but of great packs that are among the best in the game. The game itself was a great spectacle, provided you are a French fan or at least anti-England, and worthy of a repeat view (especially now that you will be more informed from reading the post). 

Watching the game a second time, even with a focus on the scrums I still found it hard to see all that was going on during the first (well, technically second) look. I will say that a second or third look was needed to capture the infractions and it was impressive that Nigel Owens and his officials caught the more glaring issues and penalized the players accordingly. In almost every scrum there are probably 2 or 3 things that could be called (mostly flankers unbinding early) but it is usually the action in the front row that incurs the ire of officials, so this post will really be focusing on those engagements and trying to look at some of the technical aspects that resulted in penalties. Well, my interpretation of the engagements and penalties. Even if you don't like scrums this should be interesting.

*I have a bunch of screen shots but I only looked at the BBC feed, so if the Canal+ (?) footage provided different angles, well, guess you're shit out of luck. 

Dawn of the 6 Nations, pt. 6

With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:

Wales: Wales enter the 2014 6 Nations as two-time defending champions, having won the Championship in convincing style during the last round against a Grand Slam-chasing England in 2013, and pulling off the clean sweep 2012. Since 2005 the Welsh have been champions 4 times, 3 of those in Grand Slam fashion, so their success has been sustained and there is reason to think that they can continue to be one of the top teams in the Northern Hemisphere. Warren Gatland has overseen 3 of those teams and will continue on as the national coach until 2019, such is the faith the WRU have in his ability. 

Dawn of the 6 Nations, pt. 5

With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:

Italy: Italy enjoyed its most successful 6 Nations tournament since the 2006-2007 championship as the Azzurri recorded wins over France and Ireland in front of their home supporters and appeared to take big steps in their progress under head coach Jacques Brunel. However, it will be a very big accomplishment to repeat that success this year as both France and Ireland will be much improved, and outside of a competitive game against Scotland it is hard to see a win coming against England or Wales. That is not to say it isn't possible, but both significant form, defense and luck will be needed to scrape something into the W column. 

Dawn of the 6 Nations, pt. 4

With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:

Ireland: The introduction of the Joe Schmidt era began with a bang with an easy rout against Manu Samoa, but the squad came crashing down to Earth the next week with a defeat to an Australian team still finding its feet under Ewen McKenzie. The Irish were able to turn it around the next week with an immaculate first 40 minutes against the All Blacks, before the game was taken from them at the death by Ryan Crotty's try, and a first victory against the New Zealand was lost. If the performance shown against the All Blacks can be the new standard set by Schmidt then Ireland look to be capable of making a big turn around this tournament from the lows they suffered last year by finishing 5th.

Dawn of the 6 Nations, pt. 3

With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:

England: Certainly one of the favourites to take the title, though really, outside of Scotland and Italy, any of the teams in this competition could make a reasonable claim for that statement. Stuart Lancaster has taken the opportunity in this tournament to introduce even more new blood into the England team, with Henry Thomas, Luther Burrell, Jack Nowell, Anthony Watson and Jonny May set to play some serious minutes. Burrell's is an inspiring story (here), but he is in this team to make a difference and give England the sort of impact runner they lack in the centres with Manu Tuilagi still on the sidelines. The same goes for the other aforementioned rookies, all of whom have earned this ascension into England XV reckoning based on fantastic club form.

Dawn of the 6 Nations, pt. 2

With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:

Scotland: The last couple seasons have seen the Scotland side have had reasonable hope and potential to do well in the 6 Nations (with surprising -and misleading- Autumn results fuelling this), and beating more than Italy last year was a nice surprise, but to continue winning games will require 80 minute efforts each time out, and a couple players need to play absolutely out of their skin for this side to get a positive balance in the W column for this year's tournament. It really comes down to 10, as it has for the last decade (and beyond, but I won't pretend to know those sagas). Weir or Jackson or some effective combination of the two have to start doing something productive for this team to go places. Jackson has a real creative flair that can cause as much good as bad, but this is a team that does need to take risks in the right part of the field (ie not in the 22 please).

Dawn of the 6 Nations, pt. 1

With the 6 Nations quite literally around the corner, I wanted to start Route One by talking about each country and some of the possible talking points going into this tournament. I'll place the countries into different posts and I'll save my thoughts on the Round 1 matches for separate posts, and hopefully this doesn't take terribly long. They are arranged in absolutely random order:

France: Certainly the past year was not great for Philippe Saint Andre and his men, but not everything was an albatross, as the Autumn Tests saw some improved play and while les Bleus did not get the victories they were hoping for, it certainly has created an element of surprise as to how the squad will perform during this tournament.

Welcome

Hi, my name is Kevin (pillaging that ruck below), I'm surprised by your presence. 

Anyway, for much of the past decade my main sporting concern has been rugby and while there are a number of great online sources for those interested in the sport, I figured there was always room for one more marginally informed opinion. I was a better student of the game then player, hopefully my observations aren't a waste of your time, but if they are, provide some constructive feedback.